./blog
The log.
Every trade, every thesis, every post-mortem. Filed by category, sorted by date.
Macro
The Fed cut is mispriced — here's the trade
Kalshi has the next FOMC at 62% for a 25bp cut. CPI prints say otherwise. Sizing in at 0.55, target exit 0.78.
Post-Mortems
Post-mortem: I was wrong on the Iowa special
Down 2.1% on the book. The polling error wasn't the mistake — anchoring on it was. Three lessons.
Sports
Champions League final: where the model disagrees with the book
Polymarket has the favorite at 0.64. xG-adjusted model says 0.57. Small fade, sized accordingly.
Crypto
Why I'm short 'BTC > $150k by EOY' on Polymarket
Market is at 0.31. Implied vol on options says ~0.18. The arb isn't free, but it's there.
Meta
Why this blog exists
Trading in public is a forcing function. Public losses hurt more than private ones — that's the point.