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The log.

Every trade, every thesis, every post-mortem. Filed by category, sorted by date.

The Fed cut is mispriced — here's the trade

Kalshi has the next FOMC at 62% for a 25bp cut. CPI prints say otherwise. Sizing in at 0.55, target exit 0.78.

Down 2.1% on the book. The polling error wasn't the mistake — anchoring on it was. Three lessons.

Polymarket has the favorite at 0.64. xG-adjusted model says 0.57. Small fade, sized accordingly.

Market is at 0.31. Implied vol on options says ~0.18. The arb isn't free, but it's there.

Trading in public is a forcing function. Public losses hurt more than private ones — that's the point.