·Post-Mortems·1 min read
Post-mortem: I was wrong on the Iowa special
What happened
I sized into the Democrat at 0.41 based on a single internal poll leak. Closed at 0.18. -2.1% on the book.
What I got wrong
- One data point is not a thesis. I had nothing else.
- Polymarket flow was screaming the other way — I called it noise. It wasn't.
- No exit plan. I averaged down twice. Stop discipline matters more than edge.
What changes
No more single-source entries above 1% size. Pre-mortem written before every position over 2%.
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