·Macro·1 min read
The Fed cut is mispriced — here's the trade
The setup
Kalshi is showing 62% for a 25bp cut at the next FOMC. After this morning's CPI print, that number is too low.
- Headline CPI: 2.4% YoY (consensus 2.6%)
- Core services ex-housing rolling over
- Labor market softening at the margins
The trade
Bought YES at 0.55, average size 4% of bankroll. Target exit 0.78 before the meeting blackout. Stop if it trades through 0.46 on no new data.
What kills it
A hot PCE print, or any Fed speaker explicitly pushing back next week. I'll cut on either.
./next_post
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