·Sports·1 min read
Champions League final: where the model disagrees with the book
The edge
My xG-and-rest-days model says the favorite should be 0.57. Polymarket has them at 0.64. That's 7 points of edge, which after fees is still worth a small fade.
Sizing
1.5% of bankroll on the underdog at 0.36. Not a high-conviction trade — just a positive-EV bet I'm happy to lose.
./next_post
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