·Crypto·1 min read
Why I'm short 'BTC > $150k by EOY' on Polymarket
Polymarket is pricing 31% for BTC > $150k by year-end. Deribit IV implies closer to 18% for the same strike.
Not a clean arbitrage — funding, settlement risk, and Polymarket-specific flow keep the spread alive — but I'm comfortable shorting at 0.31 with a hedge on Deribit.
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